MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0255
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
624 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN CO...SE WY...NE NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 151023Z - 151523Z
 
SUMMARY...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING A MOIST UPSLOPE
EVENT THAT WILL PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAIN TODAY ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND EXTENDING INTO SE CO AND NE NM.

DISCUSSION...EVENTS TODAY APPEAR IDENTIFIABLE WITH MORE LEAD TIME
THAN IS USUALLY AFFORDED FOR CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD STALL BY EVENING OVER
FAR SOUTHERN CO. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL FOCUS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES...WHILE
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MAINTAINS
BROAD SCALE LIFTING ALOFT.

ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CNTRL AND ERN CO DURING MIDDAY
AND THE AFTERNOON...IN SYNC WITH THE SOLAR CYCLE AND TYPICAL
INITIATION TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS
MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 IN NE
AND ERN CO...AND THE AREA OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND HEAVIEST RAIN
INITIALLY WILL LINE UP A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN CO. THE PRIMARY
TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO HANG BACK TO THE WEST...FOCUSING ORGANIZED
RAIN...SOME HEAVY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER SRN CO/NRN NM.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN PRODUCING RAIN IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH...AND SPOTTY TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...GJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   41350629 41840573 41350439 40410367 38930310 38070212
            37270223 36930284 36100486 36170613 36700608 37850595
            39570641 41350629