MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0280
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TEXAS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 151248Z - 151648Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
TEXAS.  TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION WILL SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS.  PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT CONTINUE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN...WITH A WELL DEFINED TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING WEST SOUTH WESTWARD TO T.D. OCTAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING TO ENHANCE UVVS.  SLOW MOVEMENT...TRAINING OF
CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES PLUS IN AN HOUR OR
TWO. 

WITH RESPECT TO MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE THE LATEST HRRR AND THE MORE RELIABLE HI RES ARW AS TO
WHAT AREA WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
DOING BETTER WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AREA FROM SJT SOUTHWARD...WHILE
THE ARW BETTER WITH THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE FRONT ALONG THE
RED RIVER.  THE HI RES ARW IS ALSO EMPHASIZING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE VICINITY OF DRT...WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE SOUTH OF DRT OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31919738 31679764 31339779 31079786 30419827 29509946
            29140035 29060083 30020157 30480187 31380202 32410204
            32890162 33140071 33719962 34209781 34369700 34229682
            34219614 33919560 33499581 33009633 32399677 31919738