MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0282
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
833 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NORTHEAST TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 262359Z - 270459Z
 
SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CROSS NORTHEAST TX
THROUGH 05Z. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR FEEDING INTO THE COMPLEX ON
A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAISE THE POSSIBLY OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT FORMED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN TX CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SPS TO JXI
EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COMPLEX...AS A LOW LEVEL 25 TO 30 KT
JET FEEDS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES INTO THE
REGION. THE LATEST NAM ARW AND NAM CONEST RUNS SHOW INSTABILITY
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z NEAR THE COMPLEX...FEEDING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 1000+ J/KG OF
SBCAPE AVAILABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX.

THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL TRACK OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED AS
MUCH AS 1.30 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THE MAIN COMPLEX...AND THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. MOST OF THE
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OF QPF WITH THE
COMPLEX THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE 18Z NAM CONEST AS HIGH AS 4.50
INCHES. WHILE THESE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOWER THAN THE RELATIVELY HIGH
FLASH FLOOD VALUES...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR COULD RESULT IN
HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD RESULT
IN TRAINING.

THE EAST SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD MITIGATE A
LARGER FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33779955 33819911 33789837 33789744 33759690 33699623
            33559538 33409475 33079427 32799422 32459428 32089455
            31919520 31879614 31889692 31899752 32289896 32579972
            32829988 33249998 33649983 33799954 33779955