MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0283
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...NORTHERN MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 301925Z - 302255Z
 
SUMMARY...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT AND
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS
INDICATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...AND IS SHOWING VERY LIMITED
MOVEMENT.  ALSO...AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS IS FEEDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
INTO THE REGION.  

THE LATEST HI-RES AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 6 PM FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.  WHILE THESE QPF AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
MODERATELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD VALUES...THE MOISTURE RICH AIR COULD
RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38439731 39139637 39879539 40399455 40539344 40409249
            39989186 39409198 38779269 38039379 37339493 37109604
            37119742 37549790 38439731