MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0284
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1006 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX/SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 310205Z - 310605Z
 
SUMMARY...LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF TRAINING
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY UP TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN TX. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC UPPER TROF CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A BROAD AXIS OF MOISTURE WAS SEEN
RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED WIDESPREAD
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES WHICH RANKS BETWEEN THE 95TH AND
99TH PERCENTILES BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. THE AREA OF ONGOING
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY.
LOCAL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAIRLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
EXTENDING FROM 900 MB UP TO APPROXIMATELY 500 MB WHICH MAY ALLOW
CONVECTION TO TRAIN/BACKBUILD ACROSS AREAS OF EAST TX. THE 01Z RAP
SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE ONGOING COMPLEX. CONVECTIVE
RESOLVING MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT HIGHLIGHTING A
HEAVY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. IN PARTICULAR...THE HRW-ARW AND NMM
BOTH SHOW A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE
AFFECTED REGION. OVERALL...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
KEPT AS POSSIBLE GIVEN THERE ARE LOCATIONS WITH DIMINISHED FFG
VALUES. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE...RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LOCALLY EXCEED THE GUIDANCE.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

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            28519882 29279965