MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0288
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 AM EST WED NOV 06 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 060819Z - 061419Z
 
SUMMARY...A QUASI STATIONARY BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL
POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
TX.

DISCUSSION...A NEARLY QUASI STATIONDARY BAND OF WARM TOPPED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST ALONG A PWAT GRADIENT
STRETCHING FROM NEAR KAUS NORTHEAST TO NEAR KDFW. LOCAL VWPS SHOW
A 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTH  SOUTHEAST INFLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...TRANSPORTING PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.4 INCHES TOWARD THE LINE OF CONVECTION. NEAR TERM MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A HANDLE ON THE MASS FIELDS... SUGGESTING SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE LINE AND LITTLE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO MOIST INFLOW. 

HOWEVER...THE QPF APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE IN ALL NEAR TERM
MODELS...WHICH SHOW MAXIMUM QPF VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AT BEST.
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LINE...
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH 4 INCHES ALONG THE
LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN THE EWX COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...WHICH WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   29710029 30599999 31249930 31939838 32519764 32919689
            32949658 32739630 32729626 32379598 31679622 30949665
            30649698 30479733 30479737 29759837 29329948 29359988
            29640031 29740029 29710029