MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0007
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030515Z - 030915Z
 
SUMMARY...MERGING AND SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO A SOMEWHAT LARGER
SCALE AND SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE REPEATING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL CHANGE
OCCURRING WITH THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF THE ACTIVE AREAS OF
CONVECTION IMPACTING ERN KS AND FAR WRN MO. THERE HAVE BEEN
MULTIPLE MERGERS OF SUPERCELL AND MULTI-CELL CONVECTION OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS AS A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW LVL JET
INTERSECTS AND OVERRUNS A WELL-DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
SERN KS AND ACROSS S CNTRL AREAS OF MO.

VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TEMPS INCLUDING SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO
AS LOW AS -75C...COUPLED WITH LOCALIZED MERGING OF CELLS IS LIKELY
PRODUCING VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2
INCHES/HR. THE LATEST 850 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME SPEED
CONVERGENCE INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND NEAR THE SRN FLANK
OF CONVECTION IN SERN KS AND WRN MO...AND THIS WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING AND
TRAINING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS ALREADY 40 TO 50 KTS OF LOW LVL JET INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT...AND NEAR THE NRN NOSE OF A MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ARE
NOTED.

THE SET-UP AS OUTLINED WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37759153 37869355 37609518 37529607 37729649 38359599
            39319416 39489276 39389159 38999108 38349095 37759153