MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0008
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
551 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MO...WRN/CNTRL IL...CNTRL/SRN IN...NRN
KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 030950Z - 031430Z
 
SUMMARY...A SLOWLY FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER ERN MO WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY INTO IL AND IN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS COUPLED WITH
SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING AND MERGING CONVECTION WILL
MAINTAIN SOME ADDITIONAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A VERY COLD-TOPPED
MCS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VERY HVY
RAINFALL RATES THAT CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO
2 INCHES/HR...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER RATES. ADDITIONAL INTENSE
RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS OVER CNTRL MO FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING BACK OVER WRN MO AND NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL BE
DIMINISHING FROM HERE ON OUT. 

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING MCV HOWEVER
NORTHWEST OF KSTL...AND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM OVER CNTRL/SRN IL AND CNTRL/SRN IN AND INTERACT
WITH A ROBUST SWLY LOW LVL JET ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS...AND
PWATS OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES BASED ON LATEST GOES-SOUNDER DATA.
ALREADY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING TODAY TOWARD
THE MIDWEST...AND WITH PROXIMITY OF A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE THIS
MORNING EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL MO EAST INTO SRN IL...THERE SHOULD
BE STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE
CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES FAVOR ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
TRAINING AND BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS.

HVY RAINS OVERNIGHT AND BACK ON WED OVER MO AND IL HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED FFG VALUES...AND SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RATHER WET IF NOT OUTRIGHT SATURATED. THEREFORE...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
ORGANIZATION...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
SGF...EAX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40638854 40548675 40128587 39398522 38208508 37448545
            37008636 37698820 38158982 38119124 37959254 37649409
            37929493 38629475 39199319 39619168 40209001 40638854