MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0010
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
912 PM EDT THU APR 03 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL..SRN IN...KY...EXTREME SWRN OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 040105Z - 040605Z
 
SUMMARY...LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY MERGING
TOGETHER AND TRAINING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN MO AND EAST
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OH RIVER AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN IL AND
PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL OUT AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCD WITH A
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND A WELL-DEFINED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT REGIME EMANATING FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE STRONGER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS INTERACTING WITH
A COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONE WHERE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
ADVANCING EAST. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER SERN MO EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SRN KY. A COLD POOL
JUST NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING FOR AN ELEVATED
NATURE TO THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF MERGING AND
TRAINING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ALREADY MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS ARE
OCCURRING AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
INTENSIFYING RAINFALL RATES. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES/HR AND ISOLATED HEAVIER RATES. CANNOT RULES OUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES LOCALLY IN JUST A FEW HOURS WHERE THE
BEST TRAINING/BANDING OCCURS ALONG AND ADJACENT THE OH RIVER.

GIVEN EARLY RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LZK...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37308283 36918380 36988547 37158667 37188811 36928940
            36589080 36479166 36889229 37509251 38479206 39019107
            39298944 39678829 39028706 39198522 39168439 38748306
            37998246 37308283