MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0011
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IN...CNTRL/NRN KY...SRN OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 040605Z - 040930Z
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG AND
ADJACENT THE OHIO RIVER AS STRONG CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MCS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY ATTM...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ENEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HVY
RAINFALL RATES. CONFIRMED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR HAVE
BEEN REPORTED.
 
THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SWLY TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE ONGOING MCS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION ESP OVER FAR NRN KY...SRN IN AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN OH
BEFORE DAWN. THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCS WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING WELL SWWD DOWN INTO NERN AR IS TENDING TO BOW OUT
SOMEWHAT AND WITH FASTER EASTWARD PROPAGATION...THE RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HVY.

NEVERTHELESS...MUCH OF THE THREAT AREA HAS SEEN RECENT HVY RAINS
WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN NEARLY SATURATED SOILS...AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE FFG VALUES ARE QUITE LOW. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SRN IL AS ONGOING CONVECTION HERE WILL MOVE
OUT SHORTLY. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OVER SRN IN...CNTRL/NRN KY...AND SRN
OH WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38968229 38358215 37628305 37408381 37208450 36938622
            36868760 36968891 37488993 38238984 38638884 38908753
            39128591 39278485 39368399 39288307 38968229