MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0012
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1051 AM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA ...CENTRAL MS...SW AL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 061451Z - 061951Z
 
SUMMARY...RAIN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WHILE WEST TO EAST CELL
TRAINING PERSISTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL OCCURRENCES OF FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH. AS OF 1430Z CELLS WERE ALREADY TRAINING AND YIELDING
FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL OF NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS MS. THIS
SAME AREA RECEIVED A SWATH OF 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAIN
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING REDUCTION OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. EVEN
GREATER REDUCTION WAS NOTED DOWNSTREAM INTO ALABAMA. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING OVER NE LA. 

SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL PROGRESS EAST AND NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT
STORM COMPLEXES ARE MORE LIKELY TO TRACK EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT...ABSORBING NORTHWARD MOVING CELLS WITHIN
THE STRENGTHENING INFLOW. MESOSCALE MODELS ALL DEPICT A SWATH OF
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCH RAINFALL WITH LITTLE NORTH TO SOUTH VARIATION
IN THE MODELS. THE WEST TO EAST TRAINING SHOULD EVOLVE BY EVENING
WHEN THIS APPROACHING WAVE EXITS NORTHWARD...BUT MORE STRONGLY
FORCED ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH OUT OF SE TX/SRN LA BY THAT
TIME...WITH RENEWED CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31629165 31408894 31428691 31698648 32128647 32538691
            32868793 33008917 32969060 32819181 32149214 31629165