MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0019
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN MO/IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 131737Z - 132337Z
 
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.


DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND INTO NORTHERN
IL. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BE THAT HEAVY THIS
MORNING...THE GROUNDS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED AFTER 2 TO 3 INCHES
FELL OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

THE 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN KS UP THROUGH SOUTHERN IA AND INTO NORTHERN IL. THE
16Z RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR BEING VERY
UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY
DIFFULENT ALOFT WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE 250-MB
ANALYSIS. IN TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS MIGRATE EASTWARD.
RECENT MODELS SUGGEST THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK WHICH WILL SLOW
THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.
THIS WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP.

WHILE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO EXACT PLACEMENT...THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ALL DEPICT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE. 


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40539543 41819587 42869464 43609074 43708902 43408796
            42418788 41968886 41589065 41099193 40329373 40539543