MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0020
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
443 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST LA...CENTRAL MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 142040Z - 150000Z
 
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY OVER AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS ARE GRADUALLY COOLING
ACROSS SERN TX AND NRN LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION. ALL OF THIS IS BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE SRN TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING NEWD OUT
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS SEEN MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST REGION ATTM WHICH IS
INTERACTING WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BNDRYS AND A VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ADVECTING NORTH OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DIURNAL HEATING HAS AIDED SFC-BASED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND ORGANIZE WHILE MOVING
GRADUALLY OFF TO THE EAST. MERGING CONVECTIVE CELL CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2
INCHES/HR. SUPPORTING THIS ARE PWATS RUNNING AOA 1.75 INCHES
ACROSS FAR SERN TX...LA...AND INTO SRN MS AS PER GOES-SOUNDER.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING BACK
OVER AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH
NEARLY SATURATED SOIL AT LEAST LOCALLY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   33179113 33589013 33648931 33478879 32978845 32318854
            31868903 31568987 31519045 31509127 31829174 32329182
            32859151 33179113