MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0022
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1048 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL...SRN MS...FAR SW GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 150247Z - 150817Z
 
SUMMARY...SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL MAXIMIZE THE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THROUGH 08Z. THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL SEE OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS
WITH LESS ORGANIZATION.

DISCUSSION...THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ONGOING AT 0230Z HAD PRODUCED
SPOTTY 5-6 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR MOBILE...AND MORE GENERAL 2-3 INCH
AMOUNTS WHEREVER TRAINING OCCURRED. THE INTENSITY OF THE EVENT
OWES TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL
HAIL PRODUCTION...IN A REGION OF SUSTAINED GULF INFLOW AND MID
LEVEL ASCENT. THIS COUPLET OF INFLOW/ASCENT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. DESPITE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN
THIS REGION...TRAINING OF CELLS FROM WSW TO ENE DURING A SLOW
EASTWARD PUSH ON THE LARGE SCALE...WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
ACCUMULATIONS CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING LOCALLY. 

SUPPORT FOR THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MORNING...BUT
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 08Z
AS THE CONVECTION DISTANCES ITSELF TO THE EAST OF THE NARROWING
CAPE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. BACK TO THE WEST...AREAS THAT
ALREADY RECEIVED INTENSE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR AND BEHIND THE
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED
WHILE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES ONLY BRIEFLY AT A GIVEN LOCATION. 

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30878362 31378432 31568590 31508774 30808902 29958895
            29558824 29258617 29408432 30008363 30488350 30878362