MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0024
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1015 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST IA...EXTREME NORTHWEST MO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 271410Z - 271710Z
 
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL BE SUPPORTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A N/S ORIENTED LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION IS SEEN
IMPACTING FAR SERN NEB AND SOUTH DOWN THROUGH E CNTRL KS. THE
LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG WITH A
FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED AS PER OTD ALGORITHM.

ALL OF THIS IS IN ASSOC WITH A VERY POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH EJECTING
OUT INTO CO HIGH PLAINS WHICH IS AMPLIFYING INTO A STRONG CLOSED
UPR LOW. THE LATEST GOES-RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS A VERY INTENSE
PV ANOMALY EDGING INTO WRN KS ATTM AND THIS WILL FOSTER A LARGER
SCALE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LYR ASCENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS AN INCREASING LOW LVL
JET ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS PER UPR AIR RAOB DATA
FROM KFWD AND KOUN SHOWING AOA 50 KTS AT 850 MB.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INCREASING LOW LVL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AS PER MUCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
TO THE MID/UPR 60S WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION WITH A
LIKELIHOOD FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE DEEP LYR SRLY FLOW
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS AND SEGMENTS WILL EXIST. ADDITIONALLY...THE VERY STRONG
FORCING ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL
PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CONVECTION.

FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT REPEAT AND/OR TRAINING
CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   37149554 37069600 37099644 37499663 37939677 38509696
            38989681 39479655 39749648 40059645 40949661 41329618
            41319556 40779506 39839486 38599497 37769519 37149554