MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0025
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR...SOUTHWEST TN...NORTHWEST MS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 271445Z - 271900Z
 
SUMMARY...REPEATING/BACK-BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ALREADY AN ACTIVE
AREA OF HVY SHWRS/TSTMS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF ERN AR AND CNTRL/NRN
MS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN NATURE AND ASSOCD WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST GOES-SOUNDER DATA SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLING
OVER SRN AR/LA JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH LI/S AS LOW AS -10 OVER
NRN LA. WHILE THE LATEST VIS DEPICTS PLENTY OF SHALLOW WAVE/BILLOW
CLOUDS INDICATIVE OF SFC-BASED CIN...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ENSUE AND SHOULD ERODE ANY REMAINING CIN THROUGH MIDDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG TRANSPORT OF LOW TO MID LVL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACH OF THE
STRONG UPR LOW MOVING OUT INTO WRN KS SHOULD FOSTER A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONT. WARM
SECTOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY AND
THIS MAY INTERSECT OR OVERRUN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HVY
RAINS THIS MORNING.

THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH
TIME...AND WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION BECOMES EVEN MORE ORGANIZED. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   33819045 34299137 35399192 35979174 36379121 36239034
            35368940 34328901 33798936 33819045