MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0030
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EDT MON APR 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS/SOUTHEASTERN MO/WESTERN
TN/WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IL... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 280858Z - 281358Z
 
SUMMARY...CELL MERGERS AND TRAINING CONVECTION CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AN AREA STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN AR UP TO THE TRI-STATE BORDER
OF MO/IL/KY. LOCAL STORM REPORTS INDICATE NUMEROUS ROADS ARE
UNDERWATER AND ARE UNPASSABLE. EVEN SOME WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN
PERFORMED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THIS MORNING.


DISCUSSION...A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH PWAT ANOMALIES NEARING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL.
FURTHER...THE GOES-RGB IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF STRATOSPHERIC
INTRUSION INDICATING THE STRENGTH OF THIS SPRING SYSTEM.
OVERALL...THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS NOT MOVED A WHOLE LOT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS GENERALLY PARALLELED THE MID/UPPER
FLOW PER WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES. ADDITIONALLY...THE 06Z RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE INFLOW CONTINUES TO FEATURE A COLLOCATION
OF THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT AND BEST MUCAPE VALUES. THE
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT THE FOCUS EASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE TN VALLEY.

THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
EXCEEDING -70 DEGREES C WHICH IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONTINUAL REGENERATION OF
CELLS WAS SEEN AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AR WITH THE ACTIVITY REINFORCING THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AR/SOUTHEASTERN MO AS RADAR ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4 TO
6 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DIMINISHED
FFG VALUES OVER NORTHERN MS. A MAJORITY OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS AGREED WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH IMPACTS INTO THE EARLY/MID
MORNING.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36079174 37069048 37968896 38058771 37628660 36648657
            35788707 34878798 34128911 33309036 33269161 33769225
            34899252 36079174