MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0035
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
638 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL..FL PANHANDLE..SW GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 292237Z - 300237Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE/SRN AL...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO SW GA AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE STG MSTR FLUX WORKING NEWD FROM THE CNTL GULF.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATL AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF STG TSTMS DVLPG OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN GULF COAST IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING MSTR FLUX AND HI CAPE AIR WORKING NEWD
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  PWS
HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 1.70 INCHES ALONG THE CNTL GULF COAST
AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH HAS WEAKENED OVER
PARTS OF SRN GA AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE.  

THE STRONG MSTR FLUX AND INCREASINGLY HIGH CAPE AIR WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NEWD THIS EVENING THRU SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE
REGION.  EXPECT MULTI-CELLED STORMS CURRENTLY OVER ERN MS INTO WRN
AL TO BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED INTO LINEAR BANDS AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DEEPER MSTR TO THE EAST.  SOME HI RES
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LATEST HRRR RUN...SUGGEST ACTIVITY NEAR
THE FL PANHANDLE COULD BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH
CORFIDI VECTORS SHOWING VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ACRS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  ADDITIONAL STG BANDS
THAT COULD ALIGN THEMSELVES WITH THE UPR FLOW WITH POTNL TRAINING
COULD DVLP FARTHER EAST INTO ECNTL AL/SW GA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PD.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE PSBL IN SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED BANDS ACRS THE THREAT
AREA.   

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31998747 32688691 33248589 33068395 32488349 31908356
            31208396 30268525 30138680 30228747 30438785 30968792
            31998747