MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0036
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 300258Z - 300658Z
 
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AL...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO SOUTHWEST GA AS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SAME AREAS
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE MS DELTA AND
ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT MOISTURE
FLUX AND HI CAPE AIR WORKING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
 PWS HAVE INCREASED TO 1.75 - 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.  

SEVERAL OF THE HI RES MODELS... INCLUDING THE HRRR/HRW-NMM SHOW
PERSISTENT CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ONLY A SLOW SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED BANDS
ACROSS THE THREAT AREA.   

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30668820 31088822 31928751 32568631 32868524 32448460
            31418533 30638685 30418760 30428799 30668820