MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0037
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHERN AL...FL
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 300717Z - 301017Z
 
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS
AND AL...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA AS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SAME
AREAS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL
GULF AND LEFT-EXIT REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CORE OF VERY
COLD OVERSHOOTING TOPS DRIFTING EAST...ALONG WITH HIGH RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES...ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND
RADAR ALSO SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS BACK TO THE WEST NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MS AND AL AND THE FAR
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.  SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
INFLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BAND...PWS HAVE CONTINUED TO
CLIMB ACROSS THIS REGION.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A POOL OF
2+ INCH PWS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION.  MEANWHILE...ENHANCED
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WILL ADD ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPING CELLS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

WHILE THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS...MANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF
THE 9-14 INCHES ALREADY RECEIVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN AL.   

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   29728912 30008938 30388927 30888873 31628784 33008564
            33188422 32138421 31218460 30198475 29768533 29958694
            29898772 29708868 29728912 
!