MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0041
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...SE OK...SW AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 081633Z - 082133Z
 
SUMMARY...THE SCENARIO IS PLAYING OUT IN FAVOR OF LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN TEXAS WHERE COLD POOLS WERE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT 16Z...AND THESE WILL INTERCEPT A SUSTAINED
AND BROAD RETURN OF UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIR.

DISCUSSION...JUDGING BY RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH/EAST EDGE OF THE 17 DEG
CELCIUS ISOTHERM AT 850 MB. DURING THE MORNING COLD POOLS HAD
BECOME ESTABLISHED DOWNWIND FROM THERE IN BOTH SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST TX. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WAS AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION AND
A SURGE OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS
OF 1.9 INCHES...WHICH WILL PROGRESS TOWARD SE OK/SW AR AND
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF EAST TEXAS TODAY. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. STORM
MOTIONS WERE OF MOST CONCERN IN NE TX WHERE TRAINING HAD ALREADY
PRODUCED REPORTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN LITTLE MORE THAN ONE
HOUR...WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DUAL POL ESTIMATES.

THE RAP AND 12Z NAM SUSTAIN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AN AXIS
NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NE TX THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND
FEED INTO THE LINE OR LINES AS THEY MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS.
EMBEDDED SWATHS OF 3-4 INCH RAINS OVER A SHORT DURATION SEEM
LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OUTPUT FROM AT LEAST
SOME OF THE 12Z HIRES GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO
ALLOW MORE PROGRESSION BY MID AFTERNOON. 

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33999375 33289376 32099387 31479389 30879451 30469524
            30379559 30369603 30649674 31419733 32269735 33149705
            33649668 34569557 34669441 33999375 
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