MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0042
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
812 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN TX...SOUTHWESTERN AR...SOUTHEASTER
OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 090011Z - 090311Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN TX...SOUTHEASTERN OK AND SOUTHWESTERN AR
AS A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DIRECT AMPLE MOISTURE INTO AN AREA
OF ENHANCED LIFT AFFORDED IN PART BY A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES LIFTING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

MID LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD..SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. 
LAST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION.  MEANWHILE UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE TO THE
WEST DIRECTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST...BUT NOT BEFORE
AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.  THESE AMOUNTS...IN ADDITION TO THE 2-4 INCHES ALREADY
OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST 6-HRS...MAY
FURTHER HEIGHTEN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33529541 34409533 35399413 35539263 34869292 34289368
            33359431 33269509 33529541