MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0044
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHERN AL...FAR
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 100540Z - 100830Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM.

DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY COUPLED WITH THE LATEST GOES-RGB AIRMASS
PRODUCT SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EAST INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON THE LARGER SCALE HELPING TO
PROVIDE SOME ORGANIZED LARGER SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
COAST REGION WHERE CONVECTION IS SEEN PERSISTING. LATEST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE ENERGY UPSTREAM AND INTERACTION
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLED OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING AND
REPEATING CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ESP FOR
FAR SERN MS...SRN AL AND POSSIBLY THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE.

THE 00Z NAM-CONEST...00Z HRW-ARW AND 00Z HRW-NMM MAINTAIN A SIGNAL
FOR VERY HVY RAIN IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLD HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SUPPORTING THIS IDEA...BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...IS THE PRESENCE AND EXPECTED SLOW EWD
ADVANCE OF AN MCV NEAR COASTAL MS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE TAPPING SOME OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THUS
SUSTAINING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

HVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FARTHER WEST OVER SERN LA...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE AND WILL BE
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...FLASH FLOODING
IS ONGOING LOCALLY AND SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL RESULT IN MORE
RUNOFF CONCERNS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30678693 30048795 29448952 29229090 29279161 29649199
            30159197 30639125 30818983 31018884 31258826 31818743
            32558621 32198596 31338641 30678693