MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0045
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL...FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 100825Z - 101400Z
 
SUMMARY...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY
INTO THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY
WARM-TOPPED/SHALLOW CONVECTION PRODUCING VERY INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL AND THE EXTREME
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY INVERTED TROUGH...AND IS GENERALLY NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR MOBILE BAY. THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT A CONCENTRATED POOL
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY DEEP MOISTURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FL PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

THE 00Z NAM-CONEST...00Z HRW-ARW AND 00Z HRW-NMM MAINTAIN A SIGNAL
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-MORNING. THERE
MAY BE SOME SLACKENING OF THE RAINFALL RATES BY AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 12Z...BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKENING ANYTIME SOON. THE STEERING FLOW IS ALSO
BECOMING QUITE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...AND SO ONLY A VERY SLOW
EASTWARD ADVANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
LOCALLY ONE CAN EXPECT VERY INTENSE RAINS TO BE STALLED OVER THE
SAME AREA.

THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTS A WARM AND VERY
MOIST COLUMN...SUPPORTIVE OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES/HR IN SOME AREAS...AND WITH
VERY SLOW OR OCCASIONARY STATIONARY MOTION...EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31968746 32368688 32318605 31628592 30418657 29878737
            30188829 30728830 31458790 31968746