MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0046
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NE...WESTERN IA...SOUTHERN MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 120023Z - 120623Z
 
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE AND NE/SW
ORIENTED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KS/SOUTHEAST NEB ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS POSSIBLY
DVLPG INTO A SLOW MOVING LINEAR MCS AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO IA AND
SRN MN...RESULTING IN SOME VERY HEAVY TO POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER ERN KS/SE NEBRASKA
IN RESPONSE TO RELEASE OF STG INSTABILITY ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF PUSHING SLOWLY EWD FROM THE CNTL
ROCKIES.  EXPECT THESE STORMS WHICH ARE MORE SEVERE IN NATURE TO
BECOME A BIT MORE CONSOLIDATED AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASING MSTR
FLUX/HIER PWS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS..LIKELY
FORMING INTO A STG NE/SW ORIENTED MCS.  WITH THE FRONT ORIENTED
MORE OR LESS WITH THE UPR FLOW...PROPAGATION WILL BE SLOW TO THE
EAST RESULTING IN POTNL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS. 

HI RES GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY MIXED WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST RAINS..BUT DO SHOW POTNL ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER
THE NEXT 6 HRS..ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF WRN IA.  CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW THAT ANY MCS THAT MAY DVLP OVER IA WOULD BE RATHER SLOW
MOVING..GENLY 10 KTS OR SO..WHICH SUPPORTS THE POTNL FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT AND POTNL FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39939745 40779721 42119662 43809558 44639401 44369282
            42929272 41289385 40489524 39699627 39939745