MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0051
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
926 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130125Z - 130345Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REMAINING
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TX THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE FAR SRN EXTENSION OF A LARGE QLCS IS SEEN SLOWLY
PUSHING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX ATTM. THE SWRN FLANK OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KAUS AND NORTHEAST OF KDRT HAS
SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN FURTHER AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME
BACK-BUILDING CONVECTIVE CELLS LOCALLY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
OVERALL QLCS IS MOVING ALBEIT IT SLOWLY.

GIVEN THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS POOLED OVER SRN TX AS
EVIDENCED BY SBCAPE VALUES AS PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS OF OVER 3000
J/KG...AND WITH LATE DAY GOES-14 SRSO VIS IMAGERY SHOWING A HIGHLY
AGITATED CU/TCU FIELD OVER THE REGION...THE QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.

GOES-SOUNDER PWATS ARE NOTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR...AND ESP NEAR CELL-MERGERS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
ON OCCASION GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST SELY LOW LVL FLOW.
SO...EXPECT THERE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE AREA OF MDT TO HVY STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG
WITH SOME EMBEDDED REDEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEHIND THE
INITIAL QLCS ARE NOTED AND THESE RAINS MAY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS LOCALLY WHERE HVY RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND
SOIL MAY BE SATURATED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32149530 31729571 31359577 30729586 30159623 29529727
            29069853 29099979 29340032 29910058 30210025 30769920
            31569823 32499751 32789633 32779505 32539490 32149530