MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0052
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST IL...SOUTHEAST WI...FAR NORTHERN IN AND
SOUTHWEST MI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 130345Z - 130645Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IL AND SOUTHEAST
WI WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST INTO FAR NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHWEST
MI. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WHERE HEAVY
RAINS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-TOPPED MCS
IMPACTING SERN WI AND NRN IL WITH A MOTION THAT IS GRADUALLY
ADVANCING EAST TWD THE SRN END OF LAKE MI. OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
ADVANCES TWD NRN IN AND SWRN MI. MUCAPE VALUES TO THE SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT OVER NERN IL...NRN IN AND SWRN MI ARE ON THE ORDER OF
1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST SHOULD SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT.

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR IN
GENERAL WITH THE ACTIVITY...AND SINCE THE CONVECTION WILL BE
MOVING BACK OVER AREAS ALREADY HIT EARLIER BY HVY RAINS...THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY
SATURATED SOIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43518596 43158508 42378504 41558617 41428843 41858934
            42548928 43228842 43518684 43518596