MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0054
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 130755Z - 131100Z
 
SUMMARY...A SLOW-MOVING BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE GRADUALLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOME
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE SWRN EXTENSION OF A LARGE WAVY QLCS IS SEEN
SLOWLY PUSHING SEWD THROUGH SERN TX ON ITS WAY TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN GENERAL...THE SAT AND RADAR TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
SLOW DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING A MORE MODEST
INSTABILITY FEED IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SELY LOW LVL
FLOW. 

NEVERTHELESS...VERY HVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THE LINE REACHES THE
GULF COAST AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE. A DECLINE IS EXPECTED IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH DAWN AS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THOUGH WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN LOCALLY AND OVER AREAS WHICH ALREADY SAW
HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30129493 30289414 29889377 29229403 28389498 27839604
            27409704 27089793 27089874 27699890 28379773 29499697
            30039616 30019516 30129493