MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0056
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1229 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 140420Z - 140730Z
 
SUMMARY...A REPEATING/TRAINING BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS LOCALLY.


DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REPEAT AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NY
ATTM. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN QUITE COLD AND THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE
OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN THE GOES OTD ALGORITHM OVER THE LAST
2 HOURS.

THE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
NEAR AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND HAS BEEN REGENERATING GIVEN THE
LARGER SCALE S/SWLY FLOW ASSOCD WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS THE OH VLY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE UPR LVL FLOW
IS ALSO SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR SOME DEEPER LYR
ASCENT.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION IS SEEN DEVELOPING OVER NWRN PA AND MAY
POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIKELY TEND TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR AT LEAST LOCALLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR LIKELY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   43347610 43347549 43247494 42937472 42627492 42347563
            42207633 42137734 42257797 42607809 43037752 43267676
            43347610