MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0058
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1210 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA, WV, AND WESTERN PA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 141609Z - 142009Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS WV, WHICH SHOULD
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME TODAY ACROSS NEIGHBORING PORTIONS
OF THE APPALACHIANS.   REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
WV ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS VA
AND WV.  THE 00Z RUNS OF THE SPC WRF, ARW, AND NMM APPEAR TO BE
CAPTURING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THE BEST.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE MODEST -- AROUND 1.25" -- WHICH IS NORMALLY AT THE
LOWER FRINGE OF FLASH FLOOD EVENTS.  

CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 2000 J/KG WHILE 0-3 KM SHEAR
REACHES 25+ KTS, ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WET MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION. 
SLIGHT NORTHWARD PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE AREA, PARTIALLY CAUSED BY
YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION, COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES IN A VERY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY CAPTURING
THIS ACTIVITY ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5" ARE EXPECTED. 
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" SHOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   39948024 40608007 41137987 41317893 40817846 39347845
            38047878 37407884 36847896 36777920 36837943 37388056
            38488075 39478042 39948024