MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0059...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014
 
CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN THE SECOND PARAGRAPH

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...SECTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OH 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 141807Z - 150007Z
 
SUMMARY...INFLOW INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, INCREASING THE RISK OF
REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING OVER AN AREA OF SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND
CENTRAL OH IS EXPECTED TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS.  CAPES
START OUT IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND INFLOW INTO THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE 25-35 KTS, WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WET
MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE
1.25-1.50" RANGE, NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-MAY, AND SHOULD
REMAIN IN THAT NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TN,
CENTRAL KY, AND CENTRAL OH OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS KY WHERE
HIGHER CAPES ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THE LONGEST PER THE 00Z
ARW.  CIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE OH PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY
PER THE 12Z ARW AFTER 20Z, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION IN THAT REGION.  THERE IS A SIGNAL WITHIN THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA, WHICH COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME FRAME OVER AN AREA OF LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE/SATURATED SOILS.  A QUICK 2-3" OF RAIN COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...
OHX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41568229 42008056 40678186 39608269 38728344 37518466
            36798579 36638645 37598583 39288493 40958413 41748354
            41568229