MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0061...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WV, WESTERN VA, WESTERN MD, SOUTHWEST PA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 142018Z - 150218Z
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INFLOW AT 850 HPA AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5" ARE
HELPING TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV, VA, AND
WESTERN MD.  THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER A STATIONARY
FRONT.  RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" AN HOUR HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST PA ACROSS EASTERN WV INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA
NEAR THE FRONT.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT CONVECTION COULD BEGIN
TO DROP SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF CELL TRAINING IN EASTERN WV AS WELL AS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN VA.  CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE RAPIDLY FADING BY 02Z PER
THE 12Z ARW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE COLLAPSE AROUND
THAT TIME.  UNTIL THEN, LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" IN AREAS OF
LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD CAUSE REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   39327835 38697847 37777850 37307769 36847765 36687789
            36707919 37168014 38667993 38727984 39608001 40097977
            40017848 39327835