MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0063
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SC...WESTCENTRAL NC 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 151136Z - 151900Z
 
SUMMARY...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS MPD TO EXPAND AREA SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST AND EXTEND VALID TIME. OTHERWISE..DO CHANGE TO EARLIER FCST
DISCUSSION. SOUTH TO NORTH BAND OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTHWARD
INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES
OR MORE PER HOUR.  SOME SHORT TERM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES IN
SEVERAL HOURS MAY OCCUR INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATL/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL N/S LINE
SEGMENTS OF VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ENHANCING AHEAD OF A HIGH
LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING NWD ACRS EASTERN GA THAT HAVE BECOME A BIT
MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  AT THE SAME
TIME..ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION FORMING IN A N/S BAND
WITHIN AN AREA OF GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE SC COAST.  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS..EXPECT POTNL MERGER OF THE OFFSHORE BAND WORKING NWD TOWARD
THE COAST WITH THE SLOWLY EWD ACTIVITY OVER CNTL SC RESULTING IN
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.  

HIGH RES GUIDANCE FROM 00Z WAS A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE EWD ADVANCE
OF ACTIVITY THIS MORNING..THOUGH DOES SUGGEST SOME LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY GIVEN TRAINING POTNL SET UP WITH DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. 

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32028082 32068082 32718092 33908100 35318101 35988071
            37087941 36827821 36207821 34537880 33137948 32137991
            31988027 32028082