MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0064
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SC..CNTL NC..CNTL VA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 151901Z - 160101Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NORTH/SOUTH PREFRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR FROM CENTRAL SC INTO NORTHERN VA THRU EARLY THURS
EVENING AS ACTIVITY WORKS OFF OF UNSEASONABLY STRONG MSTR FLUX AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. lOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES IN
SEVERAL HOURS MAY OCCUR INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY MDT TO
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF
PUSHING VERY SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE ERN U.S.  DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROF CONTINUES TO FUNNEL UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FROM THE WRN ATLC/ERN GULF UP THRU THE
CAROLINAS. 

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG N/S BAND OF CONVECTION DVLPG FROM
CNTL VA SWD INTO SC WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST.  BOTH RADAR
AND SATL IMAGERY SHOW REMAINS OF WEAK MCV LIFTING NWD IN THE MEAN
FLOW ACRS ERN GA WHICH WILL LIKELY AID LIFT AS IT CONTINUES NWD
ACRS SC TOWARD NC THIS AFTN/EVENING.  HI RES GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL
BEHIND OBSERVED CONVECTION BUT DOES SUGGEST POTNL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA
WHICH SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN TRAINING POTNL SET UP WITH DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW. 

SULLIVAN

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
GSP...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32928059 33458103 34378060 35497997 37027878 38887860
            38977843 39137758 38607729 37167739 35797743 34967760
            34287818 32928059