MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0066
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
648 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IN...SW OHIO...NORTHERN KY 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 212246Z - 220201Z
 
SUMMARY...FOCUSED ASCENT WILL PRODUCE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BAND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.  SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE 02Z WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.  THIS COULD YIELD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL IL EXTENDING TO
CENTRAL OHIO HAS BEEN THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
CONVECTION IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. 
THE HI-RES MODELS ARE TRENDING WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS FOR THIS AREA.  HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHOW SOME TRAINING TENDENCIES ORIENTED IN A WNW
TO ESE DIRECTION.  LOCAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VEERING WIND PROFILE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. 
THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37628507 38078614 38888706 39298745 39868759 40248724
            40398631 40418498 40148418 39268347 38418315 37848350
            37598416 37628507