MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0067...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
723 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
 
CORRECTION IN SECOND LINE OF SECOND PARAGRAPH

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 241104Z - 241404Z
 
SUMMARY...BACKBUILDING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX BEFORE FADING BY
14Z.  UNTIL THEN, REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...UPSTREAM CAPES OF 2000+ J/KG ARE FEEDING INTO A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO 40+ KT 850 HPA
INFLOW PER RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINATION IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE WET MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.  SOME
CIN IN THE REGION, PER THE 00Z ARW, IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO
BE ELEVATED OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
CELL TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM, AND REPORTS OF MAJOR STREET
FLOODING IN ROSWELL HAVE BEEN RECENTLY RECEIVED.

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY
A SURFACE COLD POOL AND BETTER 850 HPA INFLOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FADING SIGNIFICANTLY BY
14Z.  THE 00Z RUNS OF THE PARALLEL ARW, SPC WRF, AND NMM APPEAR
TOO BULLISH WITH ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION, WHICH
MEANS THEY ARE LIKELY TOO DRY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST-CENTRAL
TX.  UNTIL 14Z, HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" IN STRONGER CELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE, WHICH WOULD THREATEN THE RELATIVELY LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO REGIONAL FLASH
FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33970192 33000237 32130340 31870442 32130508 33100493
            34030418 34520295 34370215 33970192