MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0068
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
648 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 242247Z - 250247Z
 
SUMMARY...A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
MIDLAND/ODESSA AND SAN ANGELO CWAS SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLOW CELL MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. 

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO IGNITE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND OF TX. THESE CELLS
HAVE TENDED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
850-300 MB FLOW. A PRE-EXISTING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION STRETCHING
FROM MIDLAND UP TO JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS HAS LAID OUT AN
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS BEYOND
00Z. MODEL CORFIDI VECTORS BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN SIZE BETWEEN
00Z-06Z WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF BACKBUILDING/TRAINING
CONVECTION. PINPOINTING A PRECISE LOCATION FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
MODEL QPF OUTPUT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
STRUGGLED WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY SO DO NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF
FAITH IN ANY INDIVIDUAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN 2000 TO
3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IN ADDITION TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLOW CELL
MOTIONS...FEEL A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR INCOMING GUIDANCE AND
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE IF
AN ADDITIONAL MPD IS NEEDED.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30600380 31400328 32130227 32720142 33320049 33899964
            33339861 32509876 31759944 31389991 30740088 30050204
            29900316 30600380