MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0070
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 250635Z - 251135Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WITH TRAINING CORES OF HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT AS VEERING OCCURS WITH A LOW LEVEL INFLOW SPEED MAX.

DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED
BETWEEN FST AND 6R6 AND EXTENDING JUST EAST OF BWD AT 0600 UTC. A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH IS BEING OVERRUN BY A NARROW AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH LOCATED BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...CONTAINING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES PER RECENT GPS PW
PLOTS. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 1000-1500 J/KG MU CAPE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HELPING TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AS CONFIRMED WITH -70 TO -75
C CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM SJT HAS SHOWN A SMALL EASTWARD SHIFT IN
A LONG STANDING REGION OF PERSISTENT CELL REGENERATION OVER
NORTHERN TERRELL COUNTY. BELIEVE THAT AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER CO/NM EDGES EASTWARD THROUGH ROUGHLY 1200
UTC...850-700 MB WINDS WILL VEER...LIKELY CAUSING THE BETTER
MOISTURE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST ALONG WITH THE TAIL END OF
REGENERATING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3-5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED WHERE THE GREATEST CELL TRAINING OCCURS THROUGH 1200 UTC
WHICH WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN LOCALLY SATURATED
SOILS. 

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32039807 31289862 30490019 30130151 30220234 30740246
            31650138 32950024 33229818 32039807