MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0071
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
723 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 251122Z - 251722Z
 
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS A REGION
WITH SATURATED SOILS.  REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AS CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX WANES, INFLOW IS
BECOME UNRESTRICTED INTO A CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS
WESTERN TX, WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD.  CAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE FEEDING INTO THIS BOUNDARY, AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25"+ EXIST IN ITS VICINITY.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA
IS 20-30 KNOTS, WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES, LEADS TO 0-3 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35
KNOTS. THESE PARAMETERS MEET MINIMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WET
MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY
LOW OVER THIS REGION DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

RECENT RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UNRESTRICTED INFLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN THIS REGION.  THE 00Z NAM
CONEST, 06Z ARW, 06Z NMM, AND THE 04Z HRRR SHOW A WEAK TO MODERATE
SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. 
CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE 06Z GFS INDICATE THAT SOME SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH COULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND REINFORCE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE. 
LITTLE BACKBUILDING IS EXPECTED AS 850 HPA INFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO RAMP UP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  UNTIL CONVECTION
FURTHER ORGANIZES, CELL TRAINING NEAR AND BEHIND THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE COULD CAUSE REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32949900 31889914 30900038 30780274 32440296 33350174
            33700037 33619967 32949900