MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0072
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 251719Z - 252019Z
 
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAINS IS
MOVING OVER AN AREA WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SATURATED.  REGIONAL
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS HAD AN ESPECIALLY HARD
TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TX, WHICH IS QUITE ELEVATED OVER A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5" PER HOUR HAVE
BEEN SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CIRCA
1.5".  CAPES ARE INCREASING INTO THE ~2000 J/KG RANGE AND 0-3 KM
SHEAR VALUES REMAIN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE, SUPPORTIVE OF THE WET
MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.

THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15 KTS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS
SOUTHWEST FLANK CLOSER TO A ZONE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE/THERMAL
CONTRAST WHERE THE BEST 850 HPA INFLOW FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO FOCUS, PER THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.  AS THE COMPLEX
IS MOVING OVER AN AREA WITH EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
DUE TO THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL, A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-1.5" IN STRONGER CELLS SHOULD CAUSE REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   29500014 29550099 29990158 30830194 31340097 31839986
            31889908 31119836 30089876 29669944 29500014