MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0073
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1017 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH/CENTRAL TX... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 260217Z - 260617Z
 
SUMMARY...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM JUST SOUTH OF DEL RIO
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BROWNWOOD. EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES
COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS SUGGEST FAIRLY HEFTY RAIN
RATES MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


DISCUSSION...SURFACE OUTFLOW REMAINING FROM A PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX HAS SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH 02Z OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING IT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM DEL RIO TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE DALLAS METROPLEX. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO SLOW AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED
CONVECTION WITH BACKBUILDING ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE STATE OF COAHUILA. 00Z RAOBS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY REMAINING WITH THE DRT SOUNDING
FEATURING 2277 J/KG OF CAPE...MOSTLY IN AN ELEVATED FASHION.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THE 01Z RAP DEPICTED
ABOVE 2 INCH PWATS LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD GENERALLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND INTERCEPTING THE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLJ INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY FOCUSING IN A WSW TO ENE
FASHION. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS COMPLEX BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HEAVY PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE MPD AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SITUATION BEING MONITORED FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES
LATER IN THE NIGHT.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   28370084 29230104 30349945 31169881 32309831 32569737
            32109650 30709639 29849674 29439732 28929835 28669931
            28380005 28370084