MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0074
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
956 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 270150Z - 270500Z
 
SUMMARY...EVENING RADAR FROM WEST TEXAS SHOWS CONVECTION BECOMING
ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT TRAINING OF CELLS IS POSSIBLE.  THE
FACT THAT THESE CELLS ARE APPROACHING AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY
SEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY SUGGESTS THAT FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AT LEAST 27/05Z.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION OVER WEST TX HAD BEEN SUPPORTED BY HIGHLY
DIFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NM.  THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAD BECOME ALIGNED MORE
WEST TO EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRAINING
OF CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. AN OLD
BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA OF TX WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE
CONVECTION.  00Z SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DERIVED STABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH
INCREASING CAPE AND DECREASING VALUES OF CIN.  WHILE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WAS SHUNTED OFF OVER SOUTHEAST TX...PW VALUES IN THE MPD
AREA OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WOULD STILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOOD GIVEN 1 AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ON AN INCH OR LESS. 

THIS AREA WAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTION EXPLICIT MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR FOR SEVERAL RUNS. 

BANN

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30109887 31080038 31490052 32029938 31379808 30329745
            30109887