MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0078
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
727 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......LA AND WESTERN MS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 281126Z - 281726Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA AND WESTERN MS...AND THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 17Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA AND
WESTERN MS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
INCREASING AFTER 14Z.

DISCUSSION...IR LOOP SHOWS COOLING TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND
WESTERN MS...AS CONVECTION STRENGTHENS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN MS. THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE
SOURCE OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AVAILABLE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN LA...AND THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE METWATCH AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND
17Z...WITH EASTERN LA AND WESTERN MS THE BULLSEYE. THERE IS A
MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 17Z. WHILE FFG NUMBERS REMAIN HIGH...THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   30909305 31689224 32499125 33239079 33929034 33838961
            32868924 31118909 30608895 29828886 29158918 28988991
            29029086 29309164 29399181 29419328 29609380 30009377
            30579344 30939304 30909305