MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0079
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHWEST AL/WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 281730Z - 282130Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL.
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 21Z.

DISCUSSION...AFTER SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...THE IR LOOPS SHOWS
COOLING TOPS ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE/MCV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LA. THE ACTIVITY IS TAKING ON
A MORE LINEAR ORIENTATION THAN EARLIER CONVECTION...AND IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHERN MS... SOUTHWEST AL AND
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST AL AND
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE HAS NOT YET BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
DISTURBED...AND A RICH INFLOW OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD
FUEL ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH 21Z. 

THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...WITH
THE 12Z ARW SEEMINGLY HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION
OCCURRING. THE AIRMASS HAS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS WAS
SEEN OVER LA EARLIER. HOWEVER...HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS
AND THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE TEMPERS EXPECTATIONS. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH 21Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   30599168 31149133 31189126 31439022 31658938 31748913
            31848872 31888820 31888758 31788709 31578669 31338648
            31178639 30208655 29808726 29658753 28918875 28979046
            29249136 29699175 30259181 30609168 30599168