MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0088
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
435 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NE...NORTHEAST KS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012035Z - 020235Z
 
SUMMARY...A PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES
IS INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OVER AN AREA WITH MODEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.  REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLUSTER,
DESPITE ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION.

DISCUSSION...A STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NE, DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF GENTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL KS AND A
PROGRESSIVE COLD COOL/COLD FRONT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD
TOP COOLING WITH THIS COMPLEX, AND ITS FORWARD MOTION IS
MAGNIFYING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES TO CREATE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION.  RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOW 2" AN HOUR RATES WITH THIS CLUSTER, WHICH HAS BEEN
MOVING EAST- SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS, IN LINE WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS.  CAPES ARE 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE REGION. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.75", CLOSE TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE FOR THE REGION.

THE 12Z SPC WRF, 12Z ARW, 19Z HRRR, AND 12Z NAM CONEST HAD A VERY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER'S RAINFALL MAGNITUDE AND
MOVEMENT, SO USED THEM AS A GUIDE.  CAPES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG
SHOULD FEED INTO THIS CLUSTER THROUGH 04Z.  RAINFALL RATES OF
AROUND 2" AN HOUR, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4", COULD LEAD TO
REGIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40659680 41099801 40069981 39379959 38759834 38839684
            39769617 40659680