MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0089
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
704 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL MN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012304Z - 020304Z
 
SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING MCV MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN IS CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN RATES OF 1-2" AN HOUR.  AS THE GROUND IS
SATURATED IN THIS REGION, FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN MCV WHICH FORMED IN NORTH-CENTRAL NE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT CLOSE TO 50 KTS --
CENTERED AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN -- IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
THE RAIN BAND TO ITS EAST IS BREAKING UP, ALLOWING INFLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE SYSTEM RELATIVELY UNRESTRICTED.  SMALL BANDS OF
CONVECTION AROUND THIS FEATURE ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF
1-2" AN HOUR AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SATURATED
SOILS CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE REGION ARE IN THE 1.50-1.75"
RANGE, AROUND THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. CAPES
SHOULD REMAIN 1000+ J/KG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS SYSTEM -- WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE 21Z
RAP AS A CLOSED 850 HPA CIRCULATION -- TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG,
WITH 850 HPA INFLOW/0-3 KM SHEAR RAPIDLY INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DESPITE ITS FAST MOTION, SINCE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE QUITE LOW IN ITS PATH, REGIONAL FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44279192 43799503 44059648 44719674 45429626 46099423
            46029202 44279192