MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0091
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1050 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WEST CENTRAL
IL... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 040249Z - 040849Z
 
SUMMARY...A STRONG INFLOW OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG A
QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLY HIGH
IMPACT FLASH FLOOD EVENT.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW (45 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB)
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1550 AND 2500 J/KG ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA INTO NORTHERN MS AND
CENTRAL IL. PREVIOUS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GENERATING A COLD
POOL THAT COULD SEND THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME...AND
EDGE THE MAIN THREAT AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH 08Z. 

MOST OF THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST QPF REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE 12Z
ARW SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THERE
IS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL NEAR THE
FRONT GIVEN THE RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THESE QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED 1 AND 3 HOUR FFG VALUES...WITH FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY.

HAYES 

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41459595 41519442 40999197 40418980 39418816 38088879
            38799249 39919495 40559603 41419604 41469595 41459595