MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0093
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
601 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN I...NORTHERN KY AND
SOUTHWEST OH... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041001Z - 041401Z
 
SUMMARY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FUEL DEVELOPING STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS IL...IN AND OH. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...A 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSPORT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES INTO THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY RESULT IN
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AN HOUR...AS SEEN EARLIER IN
WEST CENTRAL IN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY AN APPROACHING MCV LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST IA.

ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AN INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF IN...NORTHERNMOST KY AND SOUTHWEST OH. THE LOW
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING STRONG
CONVECTION...COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39818776 39968721 40018624 39998568 39778485 39348351
            39328346 39168317 38828284 38288292 38128356 38338526
            38568638 38658680 38748745 39258804 39598796 39838774
            39818776