MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0094
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE IN...SRN OH...NRN KY...WRN WV 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 041634Z - 042204Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL TRAIN FROM WNW TO ESE. RAIN RATES AVERAGING CLOSE TO
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR...AND EVENT ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY ABOVE 2.5
INCHES...MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BANKFUL CONDITIONS AFTER ONLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF THIS
REGION.

DISCUSSION...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EVIDENT IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS...BUT THEY DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION. WPC IS
FOLLOWING THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
WRF-ARW...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER ADJUSTING FOR OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS NO
MODEL IS CAPTURING THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS DRIFTING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN
OH/KY. OBSERVATIONS STRONGLY SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF
CONVECTION THROUGH 22Z AND PERHAPS BEYOND...IN SRN OH...NE
KY...AND WRN WV. THIS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
IN CONCERT WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN A BROAD
MOISTURE FETCH SOME UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT BACK INTO CENTRAL KY AND
SRN IN IS LIKELY UNTIL A 700 MB TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH...FORECAST
BY THE RAP TO REACH WV JUST AFTER 22Z.

THROUGH INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION IS RAPID ENOUGH...SOME TRAINING IS
FAVORED BY 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS INTERSECTING FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS AT A NARROW ANGLE. INCREASING PW AND CAPE THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN RATES AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES PER
HOUR...AND THE 1-3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN PARTS OF THIS
REGION IS RATHER LOW.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   38838039 39288181 39508358 39358452 38808543 38058584
            37558569 37238461 37418236 37598165 37908092 38298033
            38838039