MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0096
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEAST MO/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 050344Z - 050744Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN...INTERACTING WITH
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
ABOUT 07Z.

DISCUSSION...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG LIE
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WILL CONTINUE.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO INTO
WESTERN TN...AS THE ACTIVITY DROPS SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST IN
DEFERENCE TO THE CORFIDI VECTOR MOTION. LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...LEADING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37649239 38149129 37848985 37668823 37598716 37018599
            36278570 35648665 35848924 36289102 36639207 37219273
            37749238 37649239